With the Iowa caucuses just over six weeks away, an unexpected question about the early presidential states is beginning to make the rounds: Does retail politicking even matter much anymore?
While no campaign would ever say so publicly, it?s hard to overlook what?s happening on the ground in Iowa and New Hampshire. In places where close contact with voters is a time-honored tradition, the usual rules appear to have been turned upside down: the candidates atop the GOP polls have spent the least amount of time meeting with voters and the cellar-dwellers are the ones who have hit the hustings the hardest.
Continue ReadingNewt Gingrich and Herman Cain, both of whom ride high in early state polls, have spent more time promoting their own interests and book projects than on the trail in Iowa and New Hampshire. Mitt Romney, another top finisher in early state polls, has barely been in Iowa or South Carolina at all this cycle, concentrating almost solely on New Hampshire, where his brand of Republicanism plays better.
Meanwhile, the two candidates who have spent the most time focused on specific states ? Rick Santorum in Iowa and Jon Huntsman in New Hampshire ? have yet to experience any measurably large bounce.
The 2012 Republican primary dynamic, it turns out, has been largely driven by free media and the crush of headline-making debates. Both forces have shaped the arc of the campaign ? allowing some candidates to overperform as a result of high national television exposure, and others to sink because of their inability to master either.
The debates have been calamitous experiences for Rick Perry, and have served to bolster Romney and Gingrich. Cain has managed to cut a high-profile in no small part due to a glut of appearances on Fox News and conservative talk radio, and a viral ad featuring his campaign manager smoking a cigarette.
Against this nationalized backdrop, details that once mattered above all else ? organization, a personal connection with voters ? have taken a backseat.
?There?s no question there?s been less retail-level political activity in the early states,? Republican Party of Iowa chairman Matt Strawn told POLITICO, explaining that numerous debates and multi-candidate forums like the Family Leader event for social conservatives this past weekend have allowed caucus-goers to compare and contrast candidates all at once, rather than through individual contact.
?Looking at candidate schedules going forward it seems at least that that retail level will pick up,? Strawn said, adding, ?The opportunity [is there] to still prove that retail politicking matters. I think the story has yet to be written on whether we?re at a ?new normal? with regard to retail politicking.?
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